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節錄HS Dent 2008/01:12 Steps to the Next Great Depression
In November we released a short video to subscribers outlining how we expect this bubble boom to continue to play out and finally come to anend between late 2009 and late 2010. In fact, our next book in mid 2009is likely to be called The Great Crash of 2010.
The key message we have today is that this bubble boom has and will continue tounravel in a complex manner—in a number of steps and a series of bubbles that burst. Our strategy will not be as simple as getting out of most stocks in late 2009 and moving into high quality bonds. Strong buying opportunities will occur in different stock and real estate sectors throughout the extended down turn from 2010 to 2021 through2023.
Here, we will look at 12 steps on the way to the nextgreat depression—it was 10 in the video—we've already added a couple more.
- We have three major bubbles bursting in similar time frames: a stock bubble (now concentrated more in emerging markets), a real estate bubble, and a commodity bubble.
The theme of this decade is that we see one bubble burst while the next rises until the whole bubble boom ends. The first bubble to peak long term was the tech bubble in early 2000; the last will be the commodity bubble around late 2009, with others peaking in between.
這十年第一個泡沫早在2000年初發生的科技泡沫, 最後一個泡沫為商品泡沫(commodity), 將在2009年底左右發生, 其他(房地產-real estate與股市-stock)將在這兩泡沫之間發生
"As these three bubbles burst—stocks, real estate and commodities—the banking system will have to write off major loans, which will contract the money supply exponentially and cause the both deflation and the next great depression.
當這三個泡沫破滅,銀行系統打消大量的貸款, 將造成貨幣供給以指數型地大量減少,而同時造成通貨緊縮與下波的蕭條
The worst of it is likely to come in the first few years and during the ebb of the Decennial Cycle between 2010 and early 2015—especially for stocks between late 2009 and late 2010.
最糟的時間在發生的前幾年,然後會在2010與2015年初經歷十年的衰退 - 對2009年底到2010年底間的股市尤其嚴重
The key thing to understand is that during a period like this, all assets deflate except high quality bonds and cash."
重要的是要了解在這段期間, 除了優質的債券與現金外,其他的資產都將會緊縮(下跌)
詳細請見 : www.hsdent.com/intforum/international_forum_sample.pdf
Note : 可以參考1998-2001年道瓊的走勢 --Fred
The key message we have today is that this bubble boom has and will continue tounravel in a complex manner—in a number of steps and a series of bubbles that burst. Our strategy will not be as simple as getting out of most stocks in late 2009 and moving into high quality bonds. Strong buying opportunities will occur in different stock and real estate sectors throughout the extended down turn from 2010 to 2021 through2023.
Here, we will look at 12 steps on the way to the nextgreat depression—it was 10 in the video—we've already added a couple more.
- We have three major bubbles bursting in similar time frames: a stock bubble (now concentrated more in emerging markets), a real estate bubble, and a commodity bubble.
The theme of this decade is that we see one bubble burst while the next rises until the whole bubble boom ends. The first bubble to peak long term was the tech bubble in early 2000; the last will be the commodity bubble around late 2009, with others peaking in between.
這十年第一個泡沫早在2000年初發生的科技泡沫, 最後一個泡沫為商品泡沫(commodity), 將在2009年底左右發生, 其他(房地產-real estate與股市-stock)將在這兩泡沫之間發生
"As these three bubbles burst—stocks, real estate and commodities—the banking system will have to write off major loans, which will contract the money supply exponentially and cause the both deflation and the next great depression.
當這三個泡沫破滅,銀行系統打消大量的貸款, 將造成貨幣供給以指數型地大量減少,而同時造成通貨緊縮與下波的蕭條
The worst of it is likely to come in the first few years and during the ebb of the Decennial Cycle between 2010 and early 2015—especially for stocks between late 2009 and late 2010.
最糟的時間在發生的前幾年,然後會在2010與2015年初經歷十年的衰退 - 對2009年底到2010年底間的股市尤其嚴重
The key thing to understand is that during a period like this, all assets deflate except high quality bonds and cash."
重要的是要了解在這段期間, 除了優質的債券與現金外,其他的資產都將會緊縮(下跌)
詳細請見 : www.hsdent.com/intforum/international_forum_sample.pdf
Note : 可以參考1998-2001年道瓊的走勢 --Fred
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